09-02-2013, 12:39 PM
Energy Sector in the BalkansEnergy-Economy Outlook
Energy Sector.pdf (Size: 1.36 MB / Downloads: 30)
Policy Assumptions
The Balkan countries gradually adopt the “acquisCommunautaire” but the non EU MS at a much slower pace
The Internal Energy Market, mainly cross border trade, is assumed to develop, but large-scale trade among countries fails to develop
Security of supply constraints continue to apply on a national scale
Large combustion plant directive applies on new constructions
Energy efficiency standards (buildings, cars, etc.) are gradually implemented in the long term, leading to energy savings
EU ETS applies only on EU MS but with moderate carbon prices (20 -25 Euros per ton of CO2)
RES obligation not mandatory but support policies increase mainly for wind, biomass-waste and for some hydro and PV
Nuclear is assumed to develop only in Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey
What if Climate Action and RES Policy applies?
The economic context is assumed as in the post-Crisis scenario (economic growth roughly 2% pa)
ETS applies on all Balkan countries as for the EU
Auctioning for power generation, beyond 2020
Allowances progressively reduced (-21% in 2020 from 2005 for the whole of Europe)
CDM carbon credits partly used in 2020
ETS clearing prices: 22 €’05/t CO2 by 2020 and 43 €’05/t CO2 by 2020
Non ETS targets applicable only on Greece (-0.4% from 2005)
RES as % of Gross Final Energy Consumption target (20% by 2020) applies on the whole Europe and trading of Guarantees of Origin is allowed
Conclusions
Economic growth scenarios for the Balkans after the financial crisis are pessimistic
They imply considerably lower prospects for future energy demand, investment and fossil fuel needs, compared to projections two years ago
Gasification trends and development of renewablesis a dominant trend; however future gas needs are found lower than expected in the recent past
Applying the EU Climate Action and RES policy package on the Balkans induces significant changes: energy savings, impressively more RES (wind and biomass) and more nuclear. Gas needs reduce slightly. However, such a policy implies higher electricity prices but a modest increase in overall energy system costs
Clearly, much uncertainty surrounds energy system prospects for the Balkans, regarding investment, import requirements and the fuel mix