03-01-2013, 10:31 AM
Planning premises
the assumptions about the future are known as planning premises. These premises are varied and important in different degrees for different organisation under different situations.it may be internal or external .premises may be tangible or intagible.tangible premises can be expressed in quantitative terms. Intagible premises are not measurable quantitative terms.
Internal premises : sales forcating, existing policies and programmers of the organisation. It is generally controllable .
External premises: these premises are derived from the external environment of the business. They are generally beyond the control of an organisation. External premises are
General bussiness environment , product market , factor market
Management By objectives : management by objective is a comprehensive managerial system that integrates many key managerial activities in a systematic manner, consciously directed towards the effective and efficient achievement of organisational objectives.
Objective of MBO
To measure and judge performance
To relate individual performance to organisational goals
To enhance communication between superior and subordinate
To stimulate the subordinate’s motivation
To serve as a basic judgement about salary and promotion.
Forcasting :
Forecasting is an essential element of planning . it means estimate future on a systematic basis. According to Henri Fayol , the entire planning in business is made up of a series of separate plans, called forcast.
Forcasting may be defined as the process of predicting future conditionsthat can influence and guide the activities , behaviour and performance of the organisation
Features of forcasting :
It is concerned with future events .
It is the prediction of future based on past and present events.
It is specialised acitivity which applies several techniques.
Forcast is made on the basis of data collected from both internal; and external sources.
The quality of forcssting depent on the reliability of information
Forcasting are different types like economic forcasting, technical forcasting , sales forcasting , etc
STEPS IN FORCASTING
Understanding the problem
Developing the ground work
Estimating future trends
TECHNIQUES OF FORCASTING
Forcasting technique depends on the following facts
(a) The relevance and availabilty of historical data
(b) The context of forcast
© The desired degree of accuracy
(d) The time period to be covered
(e) The cost and benefit of the forcasting
(f) The time available for making the analysis
Various techniqueof forcasting may be classified into two categories
(i) Quantitative : its apply various statistical tools to data predicting future events.they include
(a) Time series analysis
(b) Regression analysis
© Econimical analysis
(d) Econometric models
(e) Extrapolation
(ii) qualitative : this techniques employ mainly human judgement to predict future events .
they include
(a) Historcal perspective (Business Barometers)
(b) Panel Consensus Method
© Delphi Method
(d) Morphological analysis
(e) Relevence Tree Method
(f) Input-output analysis