09-11-2012, 05:36 PM
Cars of the future
0100_cars_of_the_future__mvse20050771_finalreport_210705.pdf (Size: 2.2 MB / Downloads: 66)
STATEMENTS / APPETIZERS
1. Innovation demands pressure - therefore the (European) government constantly needs
to bring ambitious end-of-pipe limit values into force!
2. The ultimate future car does not exist - cars of the future do!
3. Hybridisation is the way to go forward!
4. Small and decreasing margins force car manufacturers to shift their production
process - volume manufacturing is not the only answer!
5. Clustering and articulating demand may be the best way to speed up the introduction
of more sustainable cars - after all the customer is always right!
6. The automotive branch has to start thinking like the computer branch: plug and drive!
7. Increased use of the 2nd generation of biofuels can have a powerful booster effect on
the innovation of the Dutch Economy!
8. While ringing out the Internal Combustion Paradigm the automotive branch now
embraces the E-Paradigm! (E stands for Environment, Electronics, and Energy)
Revolution?
9. Intelligent vehicles increase the intelligence of drivers - this improves the
sustainability of car transport!
10. It is still better to wear a diesel than to drive one!
INTRODUCTION
Car transport: a built-in part of society
Society both benefits and suffers from cars
Car transport plays an important role in everyday life activities. Society adapted to car
transport and built its patterns around it. Therefore it is likely that cars will keep their
position in the near future. Nevertheless we all know individual and collective interests
are on bad terms. Whereas car transport presents individuals with a lot of advantages in
terms of freedom and flexibility, the negative consequences for society are also widely
accepted. Important consequences are greenhouse effects, air and noise pollution, public
health risks, ecological side effects and eminent spatial occupancy.
– Society adapted to car transport and built its patterns around it
Objective: to reduce the ecological footprint of cars
The Netherlands Society for Nature and Environment (‘Natuur en Milieu’) recognizes the
importance of car transport in modern society, to which car transport is inherently linked.
Therefore ‘Natuur en Milieu’ wants to be pro-active and inspiring in order to stimulate
developments towards a more sustainable car transport system1. The focus point for
‘Natuur en Milieu’ is to reduce the ecological footprint of cars. The time frame on which
‘Natuur en Milieu’ focuses, is 2030, meaning that technological innovations from
tomorrow to 2030 are included in the scope of this survey.
Question: which innovations are promising in this perspective?
Many automotive innovations promote sustainable car transport, like ICT developments,
fuel alternatives and modern engines. Although extensive research aims at this type of
innovations, ‘Natuur en Milieu’ lacks insight in most likely to be successful innovations.
An intriguing question is which innovations are likely to be successful both in terms of
effects and social basis? Effective innovations that connect to trends in society and take
collective interests into account, deserve the full attention of ‘Natuur en Milieu’.
Promoting these types of innovations contributes to the adaptation of car transport to
society instead of the other way round; as it is the case at present.
‘Natuur en Milieu’ always recognized the importance of policy making and alternative transport. ‘Natuur en Milieu’ will
not pay less attention to these issues – car technology only widens the scope of ‘Natuur en Milieu’.
The Netherlands Society for Nature and Environment/Cars of the future 20 July 2005, version 1.0
MV-SE20050771 - 13 -
Content of this study: promising concepts towards sustainable car transport
In order to be pro-active and inspiring ‘Natuur en Milieu’ requires more insight in
potential technological innovations that meet the needs of society. For that purpose three
key issues need answering: (1) technology, (2) process and (3) strategy. (see fig. 2)
Issue 1 (technology): what are promising present and future technical innovations
that can contribute to more sustainable cars in the future?
What are most important and promising concepts in terms of vehicle technology?
What are the pros and cons of these technologies in terms of (1) sustainability and in
terms of (2) market? (buyers, sellers, producers)
What are the resolving effects of these innovations in the matter of decreasing
negative effects?
Issue 2 (process): what are key factors and key actors to influence the
implementation of these promising innovations?
What are the chances these promising concepts will be introduced on a large scale?
What influences the chances of implementation for various innovations?
Which parties are key actors in the innovation- and production process and what are
their interests?
Issue 3 (strategy): what is the best way to accelerate these innovations?
What are future needs of society and how can they be translated into desired
automotive functionalities?
How do they compare with the most promising innovations?
20 July 2005, version 1.0 The Netherlands Society for Nature and Environment/Cars of the future
- 14 - MV-SE20050771
Aim of this study: learn about, encourage and influence sustainable car transport
Learn
The first aim of this study is for ‘Natuur en Milieu’ to gain insight in technological
developments for car transport. ‘Natuur en Milieu’ has been focusing on policy matters
mainly – yet recent studies point out technology contributes equally tot sustainability. In
order to be able to promote sustainable technologies ‘Natuur en Milieu’ decided to ‘go in
and study’.
Encourage
Secondly ‘Natuur en Milieu’ wants to encourage the public thinking and opinion forming
on sustainable transport. The result of this study will be input for a design contest on
future cars. The general public will get involved in this contest, (1) to judge designs and
(2) to absorb ideas about sustainable car transport.
Influence
In the end ‘Natuur en Milieu’ wants to influence the implementation speed and direction
of relevant innovations. ‘Natuur en Milieu’ will contribute to this by means of lobby
towards key actors on national and European level. The results of this study and the
outcome of the design contest should deliver ‘Natuur en Milieu’ a running start.