04-11-2016, 12:16 PM
1464522731-GlobalMarketForecastAirbus.pdf (Size: 6.82 MB / Downloads: 11)
Introduction
For this year’s Global Market Forecast we have chosen the theme of
equations and numbers. It seemed appropriate as the economists
and data analysts working on Airbus’ forecasts spend much of
their day either searching for and evaluating new, complementary
and relevant sources of data; then trying to find ways to use these
numbers more effectively to improve the reliability and validity of our
analyses and forecasts. They rely daily on equations and ever more
capable software tools to achieve this.
But more than this, a key part of their work is to check and challenge
the methodologies used and the analyses produced against real
World behaviours of passengers and airlines alike. Their aim is to
identify a market-based vision of air transport over the next 20 years
backed up by rigorous data, clear graphics and industry insight.
The numbers resulting from our equations will in time become real
passengers and aircraft, and their worldwide flows will drive aviation
infrastructure and investment.
It may sound a little geeky to quote the philosopher and
mathematician Plato, but he got it right when he said “A good
decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers” Our aim is
to apply knowledge to numbers and through the GMF to share this
with you.
We hope that you find the 2015 Global Market Forecast informative
and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your
questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards
that goal. Don’t forget you can download our App in several formats
from tablet to smartphone. It complements the forecast and includes
our thoughts in an interactive format.
As usual this is best read on an aeroplane, perhaps taking advantage
of the quiet, smooth comfort of your next A380 flight. Enjoy!
CONTEXT
The benefits of aviation reach more of the
World’s people every year, as wealth grows,
deregulation continues, particularly to and
from the World’s developing markets, and
Visa requirements and processes simplify.
As well as benefiting individuals, countries,
regions also profit. In Europe for example
ACI recently stated that aviation represents
4.1% of European GDP and nearly 12
million jobs. According to ICAO, some 3.2
billion passengers used air transport for
their business and tourism needs in 2014,
up approximately 5 per cent compared to
2013. Aircraft departures reached 33 million
globally during 2014, a record, surpassing
the 2013 figure. Solid global economic
growth and improving World trade helped
World scheduled passenger traffic (revenue
passenger-kilometres or RPKs) grow at a
rate of 5.9 per cent in 2014, this compared
to 5.5 per cent in 2013, above the long term
trend.
Demand is being met through more of latest
technology aircraft, and by airlines striving
to increase their efficiency by filling every
available seat, with average load factors
now close to an impressive 80%. On ground
this would be like seeing every car on the
road with four of their five seats filled. Airlines
continue to work with manufacturers to
use every available centimeter in the
aircraft to maximise operational efficiency
and revenues. All this whilst providing the
service that customers demand in terms of
schedules, comfort and ticket price. Airports
are also key, growing to meet origin and
destination demand, which for international
flights is relatively concentrated. Today,
forty seven Aviation Mega-cities focus over
90% of long-haul flights and nearly a million
passengers a day. Growing demand to these
cities generates its own challenges, with
thirty-nine of the forty-seven experiencing
various levels of congestion. Larger aircraft
including the A380 have been part of the
solution, freeing up frequencies to allow new
operations, and adding to airline efficiency
by lowering the cost per passenger flown.
It is forecast that aviation will continue to
grow, this being both an opportunity and a
challenge.
The challenge for manufacturers will be
to continue to reduce the environmental
impact of flights in the years to come, and
to give airlines the tools they need to meet
the demands of both their passengers and
stakeholders. The Airbus Global Market
Forecast is one of the tools Airbus uses to
meet this challenge, a piece of analysis used
to inform its day to day decision making,
from production rates to product policy
deliberations.
Airbus forecasters take the best macroeconomic
and operational data and
combine it with a forecasting methodology
developed over 20 years, performing more
than 200 traffic flow forecasts, modelling
over 300,000 Origin and Destination (O&D)
city-pairs and analysing demand from nearly
800 individual airlines in order to deliver the
forecast.