30-05-2012, 02:13 PM
Safe Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology
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Abstract
Many words have been written about the dangers of advanced nanotechnology. Most of the threatening scenarios involve tiny manufacturing systems that run amok, or are used to create destructive products. A manufacturing infrastructure built around a centrally controlled, relatively large, self-contained manufacturing system would avoid these problems. A controlled nanofactory would pose no inherent danger, and it could be deployed and used widely. Cheap, clean, convenient, on-site manufacturing would be possible without the risks associated with uncontrolled nanotech fabrication or excessive regulation. Control of the products could be administered by a central authority; intellectual property rights could be respected. In addition, restricted design software could allow unrestricted innovation while limiting the capabilities of the final products. The proposed solution appears to preserve the benefits of advanced nanotechnology while minimizing the most serious risks.
Advanced Nanotechnology And Its Risks
As early as 1959, Richard Feynman proposed building devices with each atom precisely placed1. In 1986, Eric Drexler published an influential book, Engines of Creation2, in which he described some of the benefits and risks of such a capability. If molecules and devices can be manufactured by joining individual atoms under computer control, it will be possible to build structures out of diamond, 100 times as strong as steel; to build computers smaller than a bacterium; and to build assemblers and mini-factories of various sizes, capable of making complex products and even of duplicating themselves.
Drexler's subsequent book, Nanosystems3, substantiated these remarkable claims, and added still more. A self-contained tabletop factory could produce its duplicate in one hour. Devices with moving parts could be incredibly efficient. Molecular manufacturing operations could be carried out with failure rates less than one in a quadrillion. A computer would require a miniscule fraction of a watt and one trillion of them could fit into a cubic centimeter. Nanotechnology-built fractal plumbing would be able to cool the resulting 10,000 watts of waste heat. It seems clear that if advanced nanotechnology is ever developed, its products will be incredibly powerful.
As soon as molecular manufacturing was proposed, risks associated with it began to be identified. Engines of Creation2 described one hazard now considered unlikely, but still possible: grey goo. A small nanomachine capable of replication could in theory copy itself too many times4. If it were capable of surviving outdoors, and of using biomass as raw material, it could severely damage the environment5. Others have analyzed the likelihood of an unstable arms race6, and many have suggested economic upheaval resulting from the widespread use of free manufacturing7. Some have even suggested that the entire basis of the economy would change, and money would become obsolete8.
Sufficiently powerful products would allow malevolent people, either hostile governments or angry individuals, to wreak havoc. Destructive nanomachines could do immense damage to unprotected people and objects. If the wrong people gained the ability to manufacture any desired product, they could rule the world, or cause massive destruction in the attempt9. Certain products, such as vast surveillance networks, powerful aerospace weapons, and microscopic antipersonnel devices, provide special cause for concern. Grey goo is relevant here as well: an effective means of sabotage would be to release a hard-to-detect robot that continued to manufacture copies of itself by destroying its surroundings.
Clearly, the unrestricted availability of advanced nanotechnology poses grave risks, which may well outweigh the benefits of clean, cheap, convenient, self-contained manufacturing. As analyzed in Forward to the Future: Nanotechnology and Regulatory Policy10, some restriction is likely to be necessary. However, as was also pointed out in that study, an excess of restriction will enable the same problems by increasing the incentive for covert development of advanced nanotechnology. That paper considered regulation on a one-dimensional spectrum, from full relinquishment to complete lack of restriction. As will be shown below, a two-dimensional understanding of the problem—taking into account both control of nanotech manufacturing capability and control of its products—allows targeted restrictions to be applied, minimizing the most serious risks while preserving the potential benefits.
Nanotech Manufacturing and Its Products
The technology at the heart of this dilemma is molecular manufacturing. A machine capable of molecular manufacturing—whether nanoscale or macroscale—has two possible functions: to create more manufacturing capacity by duplicating itself, and to manufacture products. Most products created by molecular manufacturing will not possess any capacity for self-duplication, or indeed for manufacturing of any kind; as a result, each product can be evaluated on its own merits, without worrying about special risks. A nanotechnology-based manufacturing system, on the other hand, could build weapons, grey goo, or anything else it was programmed to produce. The solution, then, is to regulate nanofactories; products are far less dangerous. A nanotechnology-built car could no more turn into grey goo than a steel-and-plastic car could.
Some products, however, will be powerful enough to require restriction. Weapons built by nanotechnology would be far more effective than today's versions. Very small products could get lost and cause nano-litter, or be used to spy undetectably on people. And a product that included a general molecular manufacturing capability would be, effectively, an unregulated nanofactory—horrifyingly dangerous in the wrong hands. Any widespread use of nanotechnology manufacturing must include the ability to restrict, somehow, the range of products that can be produced.
If it can be done safely, widespread use of molecular manufacturing looks like a very good idea for the following reasons: