21-05-2013, 04:42 PM
Wind Power Forecast for the German and Danish Network
ABSTRACT
In Europe, the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) are responsible for a save grid
operation. They have to provide system services like online regulation, planning and
estimation of regulation power (load prediction for its grid area in comparison to the sum of
the nominated load prediction of the customer-supplying market participants), losses etc.
A major barrier to the integration of wind power into the grid is its variability. Because of
its dependence on the weather, the output cannot be guaranteed at a particular time. This
makes planning the overall balance of the grid difficult, and biases utilities against using
wind power. Accurate forecasting of power inputs from wind farms into the grid could
improve the perception of wind power, and help utilities both to accept and promote it.
Obviously any electrical system can absorb a certain amount of unregulated and stochastic
production from RES such as wind or solar power. However, the exact amount of RES that
can be accepted without any modifications of the procedures or tools for system operation
must be carefully analysed in each case. For systems with a high penetration of RES, the
most significant difference is that in addition to forecasts of the consumption, predictions
are also to be prepared of the unregulated RES-production including especially wind power.
Such predictions are necessary both for the Transmission System Operator (TSO) and for
the players on the power market that owns significant wind power production sites as well.
The determination of the amount and the sequence of the wind power feed-in for the
following day is the most difficult task of the generation schedule. Apart from power
station down-time and stochastic load variations, unexpected variations of wind power are
the most frequent cause of regulation and compensation power needs. The more accurate
the predicted and online monitored wind power production corresponds to the real wind
power production, the less regulation power is needed on the present day. A description of
the transmission system and it’s needs in terms of wind power prediction will be given on
examples from the UK and Germany. This includes a delineation of the day ahead market
of scheduled power and of regulation power as well as balancing of forecast errors.