23-05-2012, 11:36 AM
Electric Two-Wheelers
[attachment=22818]
Acknowledgments
This report is part of Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia, a program supported by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) through a grant from the Swedish International Development
Cooperation Agency. It was prepared by Christopher Cherry and Luke Jones of the University
of Tennessee.
The authors wish to thank Talat Munshi and Rutul Joshi from the Center for Environmental Planning
and Technology in Ahmedabad, India for support on the project; Vu Tuan at the ADB Institute and
Nguyen Ngoc Quang at the Hanoi University of Transport and Communications for their support on
the Ha Noi element of this research; Michael Baechlin and the Swiss–Vietnamese Clean Air Program
for data collection assistance and added funding; Sophie Punte, Herbert Fabian, and Sudhir Gota
of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center for their valuable comments in the refinement of
this report; and Masami Tsuji of ADB for comments and overall guidance in the preparation of this
report.
Executive Summary
lectric two-wheelers, which include vehicles ranging from electric bicycles to electric scooters,
are becoming increasingly popular and important forms of urban transport in Asian cities,
particularly in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While electric two-wheelers’ popularity is
evident in the PRC, their acceptance and adoption in other Asian countries is much more modest.
The potential environmental benefit to Asian cities of electric two-wheelers could be significant,
especially if electric two-wheelers replaced gasoline scooters and motorcycles. Electric two-wheelers
in the PRC have been shown to have some of the lowest emission rates per kilometer compared to
any motorized mode.
This report consists of three main analyses for two Asian cities, Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi,
Viet Nam. The first is a market analysis of both cities, using disaggregate stated–preference choice
modeling methods derived from user surveys to estimate the factors that influence electric twowheeler
purchase. Factors tested include vehicle price and performance characteristics, as well as
variables like tax and licensing policy. The second analysis investigates electric two-wheeler emission
rates based on electricity generation characteristics in Viet Nam and India. These analyses were
conducted using two aggregate models to estimate primary pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2).
The final section of this report combines the market models with the emission estimates to develop
scenarios of vehicle adoption and the influence of those varied adoption rates on average emissions
of the two-wheeler population in each of these cities.
Electric two-wheelers are much cleaner than their gasoline-powered two-wheeled counterparts on
most metrics. Gasoline two-wheelers emit approximately double the CO2, an order of magnitude
more nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 10, and several orders of magnitude more volatile
organic compounds and carbon monoxide. Particulate matter 2.5 and sulfur dioxide emissions are
unknown for gasoline two-wheelers, but electric two-wheelers could have higher emission rates of
these pollutants because of reliance on fossil fuel power plants. Electric two-wheelers in India have
higher emission rates than those in Viet Nam because of India’s higher reliance on coal power plants
and higher electricity transmission loss rates. Viet Nam derives much of its electricity from natural
gas power plants.
In Ha Noi, electric two-wheelers suffer from image problems and residents show a preference toward
gasoline vehicles. Given the existing policy environment and technology, electric two-wheelers can be
expected to fill up to 20% of the near future market. Given technological improvements, supportive
tax policy, and increased gas prices, market shares can be expected to exceed 40% of the market.
Respondents in the study were very sensitive to differential tax treatments, indicating that this could
E
be a positive way to influence adoption. In Ahmedabad, electric two-wheelers suffer greater disfavor,
with poor early experiences with the new technology tarnishing its reputation among users. Under
current market scenarios, only about 6% of the near future market is expected to shift toward
electric two-wheelers. Even with improved performance and price and increases in gas prices, only
14%–23% of the market can be expected to shift toward electric two-wheelers. Respondents in
Ahmedabad were not sensitive to differential tax policy.
Coupling the market analysis with environmental emission rates, several technology and policy
scenarios were developed. In Ha Noi, electric two-wheeler adoption could reduce average CO2
emissions from all two-wheelers by 16%–21% depending on how aggressive supportive policy and
technology improvements were. In addition, other primary pollutants show greater impacts from
electric two-wheeler adoption, with reductions ranging from 33% to 42% in two-wheeler fleet
emissions, depending on technology and policy support. In Ahmedabad, CO2 emission reductions
are more modest, with nearly undetectable reductions in emissions (up to 5%) under the leastaggressive
scenario, and up to 11% reductions in CO2 and 23% reductions in other primary local
pollutants under more aggressive scenarios.
Electric two-wheelers have the potential to improve local air quality and greenhouse gas emissions
compared to gasoline two-wheelers. They can also reduce noise pollution to the extent that they can
compete in the market against gasoline two-wheelers. There are some fundamental performance
issues that put them at a disadvantage, including speed, range, and recharging time. Their operating
costs can be significantly lower, however, thus counteracting some of the performance issues. Early
deployments in both Viet Nam and India have been somewhat unsuccessful due to unreliable vehicles
and have created problems with the perception of this unproven technology. A strong preference for
gasoline two-wheelers, regardless of price and performance, indicates that the electric two-wheeler
industry and government and nongovernment organizations should engage in active marketing
and public awareness, aside from developing supportive electric two-wheeler policy. In addition,
supportive electric two-wheeler policy should be coupled with a robust battery manufacture and
recycling policy that would support all transportation. Electric two-wheelers can provide low-cost,
low-noise, and low-emission vehicles, but are currently competing in a difficult market against a
more mature, but less environmentally friendly mode—gasoline two-wheelers. Working with the
electric two-wheeler industry to improve their image, improve performance, and provide supportive
policy could be the impetus to begin wide-scale adoption of electric two-wheelers in these large
markets.
vii
Executive Summary
Introduction
influence the adoption of electric scooters
(e-scooters) in these countries. It also focuses
on the tailpipe emission reductions that could
occur if e-scooters were adopted. It is important
to note that the study investigates the potential
and relative benefits of substituting electric twowheelers
(e-scooters) for gasoline two-wheelers.
This report does not investigate the potential
shift to other modes, such as cars, mass transit,
or nonmotorized transport, nor their impacts. It is
expected that a shift from gasoline two-wheeler
to e-scooter would result in environmental shifts,
but that safety and mobility costs and benefits
would not change much.
Electric bike (e-bike) use has rapidly
expanded in the People’s Republic of
China (PRC), in the process changing the
mode split of many cities. Currently, the PRC
produces over 20 million e-bikes yearly, up from
a few thousand a decade ago.1 E-bikes in the
PRC are defined as electric two-wheelers with
relatively low speeds and weights compared to
a motorcycle. Both bicycle-style e-bikes (with
functioning pedals) and scooter-style e-bikes
(with many of the features of gasoline scooters)
are classified as bicycles and are given access to
bicycle infrastructure.
E-bikes have risen in popularity in the PRC due
to restriction of gasoline motorcycles, extensive
bicycle infrastructure, and increased car and
public transit congestion. However, the rise in
e-bikes in the PRC has not spread to the rest of
Asia. In fact, few cities in other Asian countries
have any presence of e-bikes. In countries with
dominant gasoline two-wheeler mode split,
replacing those vehicles with electric twowheelers
could improve air quality and reduce
greenhouse gases.
This study focuses on market potential in
Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi, Viet Nam.
From these cities, the study estimates price,
performance, and regulatory factors that can
1 Jamerson, F.E., and E. Benjamin. 2007. Electric Bikes Worldwide Reports—20,000,000 Light Electric Vehicles
in 2007. http://ebwrindex.php
Figure 1: Typical Electric Scooter
Source: Authors.
2
Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam
Background
E-scooters are two-wheeled motorized vehicles
that are similar to gasoline-powered scooters
and motorcycles, except that they operate solely
on battery power (Figure 1). As an alternative to
the gasoline-powered scooter and motorcycle,
the e-scooter offers efficiency gains and, as they
have zero local tailpipe emissions and are virtually
silent, air and noise pollution reductions.
E-scooters have become popular in the PRC, but
because of regulations, their design has been
limited to low-power (less than 500 watts [W]),
light-weight (less than 60 kilograms [kg]), and lowspeed
models (less than 40 kilometers per hour
[km/h]). These scooters do not provide the
necessary performance to compete against
gasoline scooters and motorcycles in other
countries. Most Chinese e-bike producers do not
have an incentive to develop larger models solely
for the export market, given the strong domestic
market for smaller models. Given this, existing
e-scooters are generally unsuitable for the
markets outside of the PRC. Some companies
outside of the PRC are developing larger scale
e-scooters that can compete against small
displacement (<125 cc2) gasoline two-wheelers,
but it is uncertain what factors consumers value
or the real environmental impact of such a shift.
Ahmedabad, India
In most Indian cities, gasoline-powered twowheelers
(scooters and motorcycles) provide high
mobility to households. While mode split varies
by city, two-wheelers are a vital component of
the transport system. Ahmedabad is the capital
of Gujarat state in west India. Ahmedabad has
a population of about 5 million. In 2007, 30%
of all trips were made by a motorized two- or
three-wheeler, 14% by bicycle, 22% by foot,
16% by public transport, and 17% by car. The
average trip length of all modes was 6.2 km.3 In
2000, motorized two-wheelers constitute 38%
of vehicle kilometers traveled with an average
trip length of 6.8 km.4 Moreover, the average
growth rate of the two-wheeler population in
India is 10%.5
Interviews with a major e-scooter manufacturer
indicate a generally negative public perception
of e-scooters. This is based on early models
that performed poorly, along with companies
importing low-quality scooters from the PRC that
cannot operate well in the Indian context and do
not have strong after-sales support. Companies
based in India are focusing on developing more
powerful e-scooters to provide higher speeds
and more load-carrying capacity.
2 The unit “cc” means cubic centimeter engine displacement.
3 Government of India, Ministry of Urban Development. 2008. Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and
Strategies in Urban Areas in India. Delhi.
4 Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. 2006. Bus Rapid Transit System Ahmedabad. www.egovamcBRTS/
BRTS.ASP
5 Meszler, D. 2007. Air Emissions Issues Related to Two and Three-Wheeled Motor Vehicles. San Francisco:
International Council of Clean Transport.
3
Introduction
Ha Noi, Viet Nam
In Viet Nam, private transport is dominated by
gas-powered motorcycles. In 2005, there were
1.5 million registered motorcycles in Viet Nam’s
capital of Ha Noi for a population of 3 million
people, with motorcycles comprising 65% of all
vehicular trips.6 Motorcycle ownership in Ha Noi
and throughout Viet Nam continues to grow at
an average annual rate of more than 14%.7
At the same time, motorcycles are the main
contributor to Ha Noi’s air quality issues, where
levels of particulate matter exceed the national
ambient air quality standards. Of all known local
emissions of particulate matter, 40% originate
from vehicular sources, and motorcycles have
the largest share of vehicle emissions, emitting
43% of particulate matter and more than 54%
of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons.8 In
addition, motorcycles are the primary source of
Ha Noi’s urban noise pollution.
The prevalence of motorcycle use and the related
environmental issues would make Ha Noi seem,
like many cities in the PRC, a market primed
for e-scooters. In Viet Nam, however, the
transition from motorcycles to e-scooters has
been the very opposite of that in the PRC, with
e-scooters failing to make market penetration.
In interviews conducted in Ha Noi, Vietnamese
motorcycle riders conveyed a number of reasons
that potentially explain why Viet Nam has not yet
adopted e-scooters, including their inferior speed
and range, but also the perceived greater comfort
and style that is offered by a motorcycle. In the
PRC, regulations against motorcycles are extensive
and exclusive bicycle infrastructure make e-bikes
and e-scooters particularly attractive.9
Despite Vietnamese riders’ negative perception
of them, e-scooters offer a potential solution
to Ha Noi’s air and noise pollution if adopted
as a motorcycle alternative. Thus, it is valuable
to explore what limits this adoption, and to
understand the ability of technology and
incentives such as sales tax breaks to overcome
these impediments. Optimally, this investigation
would be accomplished by observing the
actual purchasing decisions and trade-offs of
Vietnamese riders between e-scooters and
motorcycles, but the nature of the problem in
Ahmedabad and Ha Noi precludes the use of real
purchasing data and instead requires the use of
hypothetical choice data.
[attachment=22818]
Acknowledgments
This report is part of Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia, a program supported by the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) through a grant from the Swedish International Development
Cooperation Agency. It was prepared by Christopher Cherry and Luke Jones of the University
of Tennessee.
The authors wish to thank Talat Munshi and Rutul Joshi from the Center for Environmental Planning
and Technology in Ahmedabad, India for support on the project; Vu Tuan at the ADB Institute and
Nguyen Ngoc Quang at the Hanoi University of Transport and Communications for their support on
the Ha Noi element of this research; Michael Baechlin and the Swiss–Vietnamese Clean Air Program
for data collection assistance and added funding; Sophie Punte, Herbert Fabian, and Sudhir Gota
of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center for their valuable comments in the refinement of
this report; and Masami Tsuji of ADB for comments and overall guidance in the preparation of this
report.
Executive Summary
lectric two-wheelers, which include vehicles ranging from electric bicycles to electric scooters,
are becoming increasingly popular and important forms of urban transport in Asian cities,
particularly in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While electric two-wheelers’ popularity is
evident in the PRC, their acceptance and adoption in other Asian countries is much more modest.
The potential environmental benefit to Asian cities of electric two-wheelers could be significant,
especially if electric two-wheelers replaced gasoline scooters and motorcycles. Electric two-wheelers
in the PRC have been shown to have some of the lowest emission rates per kilometer compared to
any motorized mode.
This report consists of three main analyses for two Asian cities, Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi,
Viet Nam. The first is a market analysis of both cities, using disaggregate stated–preference choice
modeling methods derived from user surveys to estimate the factors that influence electric twowheeler
purchase. Factors tested include vehicle price and performance characteristics, as well as
variables like tax and licensing policy. The second analysis investigates electric two-wheeler emission
rates based on electricity generation characteristics in Viet Nam and India. These analyses were
conducted using two aggregate models to estimate primary pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2).
The final section of this report combines the market models with the emission estimates to develop
scenarios of vehicle adoption and the influence of those varied adoption rates on average emissions
of the two-wheeler population in each of these cities.
Electric two-wheelers are much cleaner than their gasoline-powered two-wheeled counterparts on
most metrics. Gasoline two-wheelers emit approximately double the CO2, an order of magnitude
more nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 10, and several orders of magnitude more volatile
organic compounds and carbon monoxide. Particulate matter 2.5 and sulfur dioxide emissions are
unknown for gasoline two-wheelers, but electric two-wheelers could have higher emission rates of
these pollutants because of reliance on fossil fuel power plants. Electric two-wheelers in India have
higher emission rates than those in Viet Nam because of India’s higher reliance on coal power plants
and higher electricity transmission loss rates. Viet Nam derives much of its electricity from natural
gas power plants.
In Ha Noi, electric two-wheelers suffer from image problems and residents show a preference toward
gasoline vehicles. Given the existing policy environment and technology, electric two-wheelers can be
expected to fill up to 20% of the near future market. Given technological improvements, supportive
tax policy, and increased gas prices, market shares can be expected to exceed 40% of the market.
Respondents in the study were very sensitive to differential tax treatments, indicating that this could
E
be a positive way to influence adoption. In Ahmedabad, electric two-wheelers suffer greater disfavor,
with poor early experiences with the new technology tarnishing its reputation among users. Under
current market scenarios, only about 6% of the near future market is expected to shift toward
electric two-wheelers. Even with improved performance and price and increases in gas prices, only
14%–23% of the market can be expected to shift toward electric two-wheelers. Respondents in
Ahmedabad were not sensitive to differential tax policy.
Coupling the market analysis with environmental emission rates, several technology and policy
scenarios were developed. In Ha Noi, electric two-wheeler adoption could reduce average CO2
emissions from all two-wheelers by 16%–21% depending on how aggressive supportive policy and
technology improvements were. In addition, other primary pollutants show greater impacts from
electric two-wheeler adoption, with reductions ranging from 33% to 42% in two-wheeler fleet
emissions, depending on technology and policy support. In Ahmedabad, CO2 emission reductions
are more modest, with nearly undetectable reductions in emissions (up to 5%) under the leastaggressive
scenario, and up to 11% reductions in CO2 and 23% reductions in other primary local
pollutants under more aggressive scenarios.
Electric two-wheelers have the potential to improve local air quality and greenhouse gas emissions
compared to gasoline two-wheelers. They can also reduce noise pollution to the extent that they can
compete in the market against gasoline two-wheelers. There are some fundamental performance
issues that put them at a disadvantage, including speed, range, and recharging time. Their operating
costs can be significantly lower, however, thus counteracting some of the performance issues. Early
deployments in both Viet Nam and India have been somewhat unsuccessful due to unreliable vehicles
and have created problems with the perception of this unproven technology. A strong preference for
gasoline two-wheelers, regardless of price and performance, indicates that the electric two-wheeler
industry and government and nongovernment organizations should engage in active marketing
and public awareness, aside from developing supportive electric two-wheeler policy. In addition,
supportive electric two-wheeler policy should be coupled with a robust battery manufacture and
recycling policy that would support all transportation. Electric two-wheelers can provide low-cost,
low-noise, and low-emission vehicles, but are currently competing in a difficult market against a
more mature, but less environmentally friendly mode—gasoline two-wheelers. Working with the
electric two-wheeler industry to improve their image, improve performance, and provide supportive
policy could be the impetus to begin wide-scale adoption of electric two-wheelers in these large
markets.
vii
Executive Summary
Introduction
influence the adoption of electric scooters
(e-scooters) in these countries. It also focuses
on the tailpipe emission reductions that could
occur if e-scooters were adopted. It is important
to note that the study investigates the potential
and relative benefits of substituting electric twowheelers
(e-scooters) for gasoline two-wheelers.
This report does not investigate the potential
shift to other modes, such as cars, mass transit,
or nonmotorized transport, nor their impacts. It is
expected that a shift from gasoline two-wheeler
to e-scooter would result in environmental shifts,
but that safety and mobility costs and benefits
would not change much.
Electric bike (e-bike) use has rapidly
expanded in the People’s Republic of
China (PRC), in the process changing the
mode split of many cities. Currently, the PRC
produces over 20 million e-bikes yearly, up from
a few thousand a decade ago.1 E-bikes in the
PRC are defined as electric two-wheelers with
relatively low speeds and weights compared to
a motorcycle. Both bicycle-style e-bikes (with
functioning pedals) and scooter-style e-bikes
(with many of the features of gasoline scooters)
are classified as bicycles and are given access to
bicycle infrastructure.
E-bikes have risen in popularity in the PRC due
to restriction of gasoline motorcycles, extensive
bicycle infrastructure, and increased car and
public transit congestion. However, the rise in
e-bikes in the PRC has not spread to the rest of
Asia. In fact, few cities in other Asian countries
have any presence of e-bikes. In countries with
dominant gasoline two-wheeler mode split,
replacing those vehicles with electric twowheelers
could improve air quality and reduce
greenhouse gases.
This study focuses on market potential in
Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi, Viet Nam.
From these cities, the study estimates price,
performance, and regulatory factors that can
1 Jamerson, F.E., and E. Benjamin. 2007. Electric Bikes Worldwide Reports—20,000,000 Light Electric Vehicles
in 2007. http://ebwrindex.php
Figure 1: Typical Electric Scooter
Source: Authors.
2
Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam
Background
E-scooters are two-wheeled motorized vehicles
that are similar to gasoline-powered scooters
and motorcycles, except that they operate solely
on battery power (Figure 1). As an alternative to
the gasoline-powered scooter and motorcycle,
the e-scooter offers efficiency gains and, as they
have zero local tailpipe emissions and are virtually
silent, air and noise pollution reductions.
E-scooters have become popular in the PRC, but
because of regulations, their design has been
limited to low-power (less than 500 watts [W]),
light-weight (less than 60 kilograms [kg]), and lowspeed
models (less than 40 kilometers per hour
[km/h]). These scooters do not provide the
necessary performance to compete against
gasoline scooters and motorcycles in other
countries. Most Chinese e-bike producers do not
have an incentive to develop larger models solely
for the export market, given the strong domestic
market for smaller models. Given this, existing
e-scooters are generally unsuitable for the
markets outside of the PRC. Some companies
outside of the PRC are developing larger scale
e-scooters that can compete against small
displacement (<125 cc2) gasoline two-wheelers,
but it is uncertain what factors consumers value
or the real environmental impact of such a shift.
Ahmedabad, India
In most Indian cities, gasoline-powered twowheelers
(scooters and motorcycles) provide high
mobility to households. While mode split varies
by city, two-wheelers are a vital component of
the transport system. Ahmedabad is the capital
of Gujarat state in west India. Ahmedabad has
a population of about 5 million. In 2007, 30%
of all trips were made by a motorized two- or
three-wheeler, 14% by bicycle, 22% by foot,
16% by public transport, and 17% by car. The
average trip length of all modes was 6.2 km.3 In
2000, motorized two-wheelers constitute 38%
of vehicle kilometers traveled with an average
trip length of 6.8 km.4 Moreover, the average
growth rate of the two-wheeler population in
India is 10%.5
Interviews with a major e-scooter manufacturer
indicate a generally negative public perception
of e-scooters. This is based on early models
that performed poorly, along with companies
importing low-quality scooters from the PRC that
cannot operate well in the Indian context and do
not have strong after-sales support. Companies
based in India are focusing on developing more
powerful e-scooters to provide higher speeds
and more load-carrying capacity.
2 The unit “cc” means cubic centimeter engine displacement.
3 Government of India, Ministry of Urban Development. 2008. Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and
Strategies in Urban Areas in India. Delhi.
4 Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. 2006. Bus Rapid Transit System Ahmedabad. www.egovamcBRTS/
BRTS.ASP
5 Meszler, D. 2007. Air Emissions Issues Related to Two and Three-Wheeled Motor Vehicles. San Francisco:
International Council of Clean Transport.
3
Introduction
Ha Noi, Viet Nam
In Viet Nam, private transport is dominated by
gas-powered motorcycles. In 2005, there were
1.5 million registered motorcycles in Viet Nam’s
capital of Ha Noi for a population of 3 million
people, with motorcycles comprising 65% of all
vehicular trips.6 Motorcycle ownership in Ha Noi
and throughout Viet Nam continues to grow at
an average annual rate of more than 14%.7
At the same time, motorcycles are the main
contributor to Ha Noi’s air quality issues, where
levels of particulate matter exceed the national
ambient air quality standards. Of all known local
emissions of particulate matter, 40% originate
from vehicular sources, and motorcycles have
the largest share of vehicle emissions, emitting
43% of particulate matter and more than 54%
of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons.8 In
addition, motorcycles are the primary source of
Ha Noi’s urban noise pollution.
The prevalence of motorcycle use and the related
environmental issues would make Ha Noi seem,
like many cities in the PRC, a market primed
for e-scooters. In Viet Nam, however, the
transition from motorcycles to e-scooters has
been the very opposite of that in the PRC, with
e-scooters failing to make market penetration.
In interviews conducted in Ha Noi, Vietnamese
motorcycle riders conveyed a number of reasons
that potentially explain why Viet Nam has not yet
adopted e-scooters, including their inferior speed
and range, but also the perceived greater comfort
and style that is offered by a motorcycle. In the
PRC, regulations against motorcycles are extensive
and exclusive bicycle infrastructure make e-bikes
and e-scooters particularly attractive.9
Despite Vietnamese riders’ negative perception
of them, e-scooters offer a potential solution
to Ha Noi’s air and noise pollution if adopted
as a motorcycle alternative. Thus, it is valuable
to explore what limits this adoption, and to
understand the ability of technology and
incentives such as sales tax breaks to overcome
these impediments. Optimally, this investigation
would be accomplished by observing the
actual purchasing decisions and trade-offs of
Vietnamese riders between e-scooters and
motorcycles, but the nature of the problem in
Ahmedabad and Ha Noi precludes the use of real
purchasing data and instead requires the use of
hypothetical choice data.