09-07-2012, 01:14 PM
Improvement of departure prediction
[attachment=27260]
Slot compliance alarms
Shadow-mode means alarms are not used
ATC works for real
they take care of early/late flights
alarm can be meaningful even if take-off is on slot
MTOT precision ~ Alarm precision
ATCO opinion is that they are reliable and usable
Probability of an slot alarm to be reliable
Statistical simulation of the Alarm prediction based on MTOT error
Measurement of discrepancies between simulated alarms and slot compliance
Conclusions on Predictability Improvement
Better estimates for each event
The virtuous circle
Not possible in shadow-mode
Better in-block Better off-block
Better off-block Better take-off
Better take-off Better in-block ?
[attachment=27260]
Slot compliance alarms
Shadow-mode means alarms are not used
ATC works for real
they take care of early/late flights
alarm can be meaningful even if take-off is on slot
MTOT precision ~ Alarm precision
ATCO opinion is that they are reliable and usable
Probability of an slot alarm to be reliable
Statistical simulation of the Alarm prediction based on MTOT error
Measurement of discrepancies between simulated alarms and slot compliance
Conclusions on Predictability Improvement
Better estimates for each event
The virtuous circle
Not possible in shadow-mode
Better in-block Better off-block
Better off-block Better take-off
Better take-off Better in-block ?