24-03-2012, 03:20 PM
INDIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH, Energy SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Alberta-Growth, Energy, climate Change.ppt (Size: 566 KB / Downloads: 200)
OVERVIEW
In 2004 India was shining; then government lost elections, using that slogan
Economic fundamentals-’real’ economy-erratic industry and weak Agriculture, poor infrastructure, excessive subsidies, poor social security administrative incapability to spend efficiently on any programmes, high deficits, volatile foreign funds
Global meltdown of 2008-layoffs and slower growth in 2008, 2009
Vast domestic market, huge potential market of the Poor, young and ambitious population, immense technological and managerial capability
Large part of population not served by commercial energy
Major fuel is and will be Coal
India’s exemplary energy efficiency and emissions record
The Past Ten Years And Now
GDP growth: From 1998-99-6.5, 6.1, 4.4, 5.8, 4.0, 8.5, 7.5, 9.5, 9.7*; 2008-09 7.1%? New year-5%?
Industrial production negative growth Dec 08, Jan 09.
High and Rising Savings rate
Rise in Capital formation Esp. Private Sector
Deepening Export
Inflation at single digit for a decade; 7.7% last year, 4.2 in Dec 2005; despite fuel, power, light & lubricants at 7.1; from 03-04-8.1, 03-04-9.8); Rising in 2007-08, Nov 2008- 7.8%; Now almost zero
Export growth trends; 01-02 onwards: 22.1, 15.0, 21.4, 27.6 & in 08-09 now drop of 20%
Rapid growth of I.T. and B.P.O.
India- A Fast Growing Economy with Greater Potential
Mobile Users - 362.2 million (Jan 2009); 101.1 Million new mobile users in last 10 months; growth continues
Internet connectivity in 2010 -200 million; still growing
5.25 mn broadband connections (Dec 2008); growing
5.4 million PC’s sold in 2006; slowing down
Cars: expected 30% growth p.a.; Will rise again with NANO
2010-over 94 mn cable & satellite households
Advertising industry at Rs4000 crores=$800 million
Slow down in Retailing; Special Economic Zones, Media
Agriculture 20% of GDP, poor productivity, declining public investment, too many poorly targeted subsidies;
Weak Infrastructure-Power, Roads, etc
Social infrastructure-Health, Education, etc
Poor Delivery systems
Weak Agriculture-2
Fall is in public investment; private keeps rising; funds for public investment diverted to poorly targeted subsidies(water, power, fertilizer)
Productivity levels are low: Yield @ 100kg/HA; India and China in 2006: paddy 31.24 & 62.65; wheat 26.19 & 44.55; cotton 6.0 & 33.3; g.nut 8.6 & 31.2, s.cane 669.4 &825.25
Poor policies encouraging unsuitable crops: free electricity; minimum support and procurement prices same; annual price increases; no ground water policy; free power to agriculture60% population lives on agriculture
In downturn, companies turning to rural markets, with new Marketing methods
Huge potential as diversification progresses
Energy Consumption
India has lowest energy consumption today
Even with 8% annual growth till 2030 India will not catch up with most others
Coal will be the most important energy source
With lower calorific content, electricity using Indian coal will be much more