08-11-2016, 12:09 PM
Indian Retail Industries Market Analysis:Issues, Challenges and its Opportunity for the
21st Century
1466672549-IJAIEM20131220050.pdf (Size: 173.79 KB / Downloads: 49)
Abstract
India is fast becoming the retail destination of the world. India has emerged as the fourteenth most favorable destination for
international retailers, according to GRDI 2013 report. "The Indian retail is poised to become a $1.3 trillion opportunity by 2020.
With the current market size estimated at $500 billion, this translates to an additional $800 billion in the next eight years," said
R.V. Kanoria, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).This paper provides detailed
information about the growth of retailing industry in India. It examines the growing awareness and brand consciousness among
people across different socioeconomic classes in India and how the urban and semi-urban retail markets are witnessing
significant growth. India has come a long way from its traditional stores concepts to huge retail mall’s; with the vast middle class
population and its increasing middle class income; which are the key attractive forces for global retail giants wanting to enter into
newer markets, which in turn will help the India retail industry to grow faster. In this paper I will explore the policy and reformsLatest
policy change on FDI on retail industry by the government of India; the entry of foreign retailers into the market. Further
the paper will focus on the strategies, strength, issues and opportunities of retail industry and its recent/future trends. A survey on
consumers behavior on buying preference will be undertaken in southern state of India (Chennai and Bangalore) through
questionnaires to justify the impact of foreign players into the Indian retailing industry; as well a touch base on organized retail
and unorganized retail stores in India and its challenges faced by the industry in near future.
1.INTRODUCTION
Consumers buying preference in India is almost changing and creating a tremendous potential for the retail industry to
look for innovative ideas and bring in new products with creative marketing approach to tap the huge working population
with the age group of 21- 30years. New modern retailing concepts of western trends has entered into the retail market in
India; in the form of bustling shopping centers, multi-storied malls and the huge complexes that offer shopping,
entertainment and food all under one roof.
The Indian retail industry has expanded by 10.6 per cent between 2010 and 2012 and is expected to increase to US$ 750-
850 billion by 2015, according to a report by Deloitte. Food and Grocery is the largest category within the retail sector
with 60 per cent share followed by Apparel and Mobile segment. The foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in singlebrand
retail trading during April 2000 to June 2013 stood at US$ 96.96 million, as per the data released by Department of
Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).
Despite difficult economic conditions, the global retail industry continued to grow, building on the rebound in growth that
started in 2010. Sales-weighted, currency-adjusted retail revenue rose 5.1% to US$4.271 trillion for the world’s Top 250
retailers in fiscal 2011, building on the previous year’s 5.3% growth. (Deloitte, 2013)
1.1 Background
European market is in turmoil in 2011, but the emerging markets are still doing well in the retail market segments and
consumer confidence is still there and their spending is increasing due the economy of the country’s earning potential is
increased. Due to the Eurozone the recession had an impact on the major world’s leading economies but not much
impacted on the emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil etc. Each time when we see there is a global economy is
about to accelerate, something happens to throw a negative sign into the path of growth. Even the emerging markets the
major importers are from Europe so there was decline in that part of the world. Slowdown in these critical economies
influenced economic performance in their neighborhoods, for instance many economies in East Asia have been negatively
influenced by the slowdown in China. Our major focus is towards Indian retail market which is not much affected
compare to the European markets.
The global slowdown hasn't spared India, whose GDP growth rate slipped to 5 percent, down from a 10-year average of
7.8 percent. Same-store sales volume growth slowed in 2012 across retail, particularly for lifestyle and value-based
formats. India falls nine spots in the GRDI to 14th; its previous low ranking was 6th place in the inaugural Index in 2002,
and it was first as recently as 2009 (GRDI, 2013). In India, growth declined in 2013 as well, but due to the intervention of
India’s central bank has remained focused on inflation, even at the cost of delaying economic recovery and kept the
benchmark interest rate relatively high, awaiting a drop in inflation. Shown in the Figure 1 indicates that central bank
policy and tightening measures are yet to yield progress but it try to control the inflation.
Government of India proposed a series of major reforms that aimed at boosting productivity, that will increase the
consumers confidentiality; among this the first thing was liberalization of foreign investment in retailing. Big unlisted
retail chains such as Reliance Fresh of Reliance Industries, Aditya Birla Group's More, Bharti Retail's Easyday and Tataowned
Star Bazaar all posted double-digit sales growth, reflecting their increasing popularity among shoppers despite
economic growth slumping to a 10-year low and consumer price inflation not easing appreciably.
1.2 Problem Discussion
People who speak the end of the era or the end of globalization were proven wrong, since now the fate of emerging
economies is no longer tied to that of developed economies. So what happens in Europe is not much importance to the
emerging market in a whole, since the diversification of smaller countries like Philippines, Brazil etc. are doing well; so
not much significant impact will be felt on the retail industry as such due to the down trend of euro zone. Whereas the
market like United States and China is different picture all together; if a slowdown in their economy takes place then it
will be a greater concern to the world and it will be of great importance. Both US and China are working towards their
economy to improve and be stabilized; for instant we have seen in the past two quarter of 2013, US economy is
accelerating which will have a modest positive impact on global growth. Same applies to China on the other hand has
tighten or we can say has avoided a hard landing through a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus, and stronger
growth is likely in 2014.
An embattled United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Indian government has hung the ‘Open’ sign for foreign retailers. The
cabinet said OK for 51% FDI in multi-brand retail sector & 100% FDI in single brand. On one hand farmers will benefit
from it but on the other hand small traders feel they will not be able to withstand the competition. Will India in general
benefit from this step? (The Economic Times, 2013) is a question which will be known in the future.
The battle between the ruling party and the opposition party in India is creating a major obstacle and whether to welcome
the major retail giants and let them establish their operations in all the states of India or not is a talk. Since certain states
are not willing to accept the setting up of major retail stores in their states; they feel it will create loss of jobs and
unemployment to the old traditional retail shop owners. “The government maintains that the reform will create some 10
million new jobs in the next three years, help farmers get better prices for their produce and will infuse new life into
India’s tottering food-distribution system. “Wastage will go down, prices paid to farmers will go up, and prices paid by
consumers will go down,” Prime Minister Singh said in a rare, televised address to the nation in September defending the
government’s decision to introduce the retail reforms. “In a growing economy, there is enough space for big and small to
grow. The fear that small retailers will be wiped out is completely baseless.”. “I favor foreign capital across the board as
long as it creates jobs and adds value to the country,” says Mohan Guruswamy, a former adviser to the Finance Ministry
and a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. “FDI in retail, unfortunately, doesn’t create jobs. It
displaces people by destroying small stores.” (Nilanjana Bhowmick, 2012).
“It is impossible to say if and how foreign big-box stores will loosen the grip that small traders have on the market today.
(Small traders control an estimated 90% of India’s $450 billion retail sector.) Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and
other supporters of the reform are quick to point out that the organized retail sector already present in India has not
adversely affected small shops, whose numbers, according to government statistics, have seen a threefold increase in
recent years. “There will be some losers,” says Ravi Aron, an associate professor of information and strategy at the Johns
Hopkins Carey Business School and a senior fellow of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton
School. “The traditional middlemen are the biggest winners of today’s retail structure. They will stand to lose much, and
they are throwing every possible argument that they can against FDI.” (Nilanjana Bhowmick, 2012).
1.3 Questions at Issue
1. Is it the Indian government policy on FDI in retail industry will have a stronger potential and can be trusted by the
foreign retail investors to invest in India?
2. Economy boom and higher income levels of middle class people in most of the emerging markets have shown a higher
growth in retail business; but whether it is sustainable in long run?
3. Present strategy adopted by the Indian retail industry is it moving in right direction or need further changes?
Finally with a survey on consumers behavior on buying preference will be undertaken in southern state of India (Chennai
and Bangalore) through questionnaires to justify the impact of foreign players into the Indian retailing industry.
1.4 Purpose
The main objective of this study is to provide an in-depth empirical investigation into Indian Retail industry market,
Influence of FDI in retail and an analysis on the fast face Indian middle class people and their buying potential. The
information will be collected through direct observations by applying fundamental factors, recognized indicators and the
debate in the Global Retail Industry and give an overall view of the market with respect to India will be compared and
evaluated.
1.5 Delimitation
Since this thesis will be dealing with the Retail industry, the key focus will be on the consumer buying preference in
India; due to time constraint as well limited resources I will be doing the survey only on the two major cities of India
(Chennai and Bangalore) through questionnaires to justify the impact of foreign players into the Indian retailing industry.
The rising phenomenon of globalization also has influence on Retail industry, which will be taken into consideration in
the proceedings of this thesis as well but limiting to compare with emerging markets alone.
2.LITERATURE REVIEW
Various articles and publications have been written by many researchers on Indian retail industry with different focuses;
some of their key findings have been highlighted down here to have an overall idea.
Das (2000) revealed that the Indian situation is rather paradoxical. At $180 billion, the Indian retail business contributes
10-12% of the GDP higher than the some western economies, where it averages 8%. It revealed that India have the
world’s thickest density of outlets at 5.5% for every 1000 people between 12million retail stores, India’s per capita retail
space is dismissal 2 sq ft per person.
Poviah and Shirali (2001) were of the viewpoint that shopping malls are classic self service 4000- 20000 sq ft. stores with
shopping carts, as popularized in India by crazy boys film, with typical focus on regular groceries, household goods and
personal care products. Tesco and Nilgiris. India is namely a groceries market and here, shopping malls have not been
able to eat into the business of kriyana shops. While the housewife might pick up her shampoo at a shopping mall, she
continues to use her local cart pusher for daily needs such as fresh vegetables. In fact, so far organized Indian retailing
has enveloped only the middle section (self-esteem, social recognition) of Maslow’s pyramid.
Malliswari, M. (2007) indicated that Indian consumer is now sowing the seeds for an exciting retail transformation that
he already started bringing in larger interest from international brands/ formats. With the advent of these players, the race
is on to please the Indian customer and it’s time for the Indian customer sits back and enjoys the hospitality to be
integrated like a king.
Paromita Goswami (2007) conducted a study on how college students in urban areas shopped for apparels. The factors
investigated for the study were brand conscious and needed variety and best quality for their apparel purchase.
Furthermore, parents influence their purchase behavior the most, followed by peer store approval, friends’ influence and
peer product influence.
Dr. Biradar et.al. (2008) in their article pointed out that the organized retail sector is registering tremendous growth
fuelled by the unleashed spending power of new age customers who have considerable disposable income and willingness
to have new shopping experience. It is emphasized that India’s top retailers are largely lifestyle, clothing and apparel
stores followed by grocery stores. The paper further mentions that increasing number of nuclear families, working
women, greater work pressure and increased commuting time; convenience has become a priority for Indian consumers.
All these aspects offer an excellent business opportunity for organized retailers in the country.
S. Koktanur (2010), tried to find out the various factors driving customers towards shopping malls and consumer buying
response for promotional tools. They found four major factors that drive the customers towards the shopping malls. Those factors are product mix, ambience, services and promotional strategies. Customers consider fast billing, parking facility
and long hours of operations as prime services.
“Modern retail has a huge potential to not only benefit from India’s increasing consumption demand but also create
demand for value added products. Structured employment and better life for people are the two major benefits that
modern retail is looked upon. Speeding up the modernization process is extremely vital as the retail sector has the ability
to create about 10 million additional jobs in the next five years (2010-15). Over one million sq. feet of quality retail and
entertainment space with annual revenue of Rs. 12,00,000 crore, a whopping Rs 1,30,000 crore in annual Value Added
Tax (VAT) collection and over Rs 12,000 crore in additional income tax revenues to the exchequer are expected to accrue
in the next five years according to Mr Amitabh Taneja, Chief Convenor, India Retail Forum 2010.13”
According to the GRDI 2012, India ranks fifth among the top 30 emerging markets for retail. The recent announcement
by the Indian government with FDI in retail, especially allowing 100% FDI in single brands and multi-brand FDI has
created positive sentiments in the retail sector. India's retail sector is worth US$ 350 billion and is growing at a (CAGR)
of 15 per cent to 20 per cent at present, as per a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) research report titled, 'Winning in India's
retail sector: Factors for Success'.
Studies predict that in little more than a decade, over half the world’s population will have joined the consuming classes.
Emerging markets will account for nearly 50 percent of the world’s total consumption, up from 32 percent today. China
and India will account for two-thirds of the expansion. (Interbrand, 'Emerging Markets Fuel Growth', 2013)
In the past five years, the world’s leading retail brands—U.K.’s Tesco, German giant Metro, America’s Walmart, and
France-based Carrefour—grew their revenues 2.5 times faster in developing countries than in their home markets. 2013
will see international retail hitting its stride as many of the world’s most valuable brands are staging entries into smaller
countries to ride the wave of the global shopping boom. While retail naturally goes where customers are, for many
companies global expansion is being initiated by slow growth at home. Retail sales forecasts for the next five years put
compound annual growth rates in North America at 4.1 percent, and 2.4 percent in Western Europe. Contrast that to
projected growth rates for retail sales of 13.9 percent in China, and 10.6 percent in India, and it’s clear why retailers from
mature markets, such as the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone, make up 80 percent of those taking the calculated risk of
crossing borders. (Interbrand, 'Emerging Markets Fuel Growth', 2013)
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with
sales forecast to increase by 107.9% between 2013 and 2017, from US$34.79bn to US$72.33bn as India's emerging
middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services, and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities
(Business Monitor International, 2013)
As developed markets face flat or anemic growth, developing markets remain important sources of growth. The 12th
annual edition of the GRDI finds many opportunities for retailers seeking to grow and expand in fast-growing developing
markets big and small. Of course, there's nothing easy about a global expansion strategy in retail. Every market has
unique challenges that require unique strategies for success. And this year's GRDI finds several examples of countries
where global retailers are taking a step back from the aggressive expansion of the not-too-distant past in favor of more
cautious strategies (GRDI, 2013)
The key benefit of this research is to find the viability and the sustainability of the Indian retail industry and its future.
This proposal is mainly about the information’s on the research methods, theoretical concepts and practical experiences
from which the main research will be undertaken.
3.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
The term "research design" refers to how a researcher puts a research study together to answer a question or a set of
questions. Research design works as a systematic plan outlining the study, the researchers' methods of compilation,
details on how the study will arrive at its conclusions and the limitations of the research. (Kenneth W. Michael Wills,
2002). Methodology is the systematic, theoretical analysis of the methods applied to a field of study, or the theoretical
analysis of the body of methods and principles associated with a branch of knowledge. It, typically, encompasses concepts
such as paradigm, theoretical model, phases and quantitative or qualitative techniques (Irny, S.I. and Rose, A.A, 2005)
3.1 Research Objectives and Scope
The main objective of the proposed research is to identify the key issues, challenges and its opportunities in retail industry
in India; its current and future trends will be analyzed and whether the present strategy of the government in boosting the
retail sector has achieved its expectation or not? And what need to be done further to boost the retail industry that will attract FDI in Indian retail industry. I will also analysis the consumer’s behavior on buying preference through
questionaries’ in southern state of India (Chennai and Bangalore). Descriptive analysis of retail industry position will be
analyzed from the GRDI reports and data’s gathered will be consolidated to get an idea on Indian retail industry position
in the global market. Small and medium sized retail outlets are facing tougher challenges to competitive with the foreign
retails giants; overview of the organized retail and unorganized retail stores in India and its challenges faced by the
industry in near future will also be explored.
3.2 Design of the Study
This study adopts descriptive and exploratory research by using primary and secondary data as the research methodology.
This study proposes a positivistic approach as the research plan for data collection and analysis, and also uses the survey
method and questionnaire design. The data collected will be used for supporting the findings from the public and
supplemented with the retail industry facts. Primary data will be collected through questionaries’ from the consumers in
India (Chennai and Bangalore), a sample of 200 people with different age groups; gender will be taken into account. Key
information will be gathered mainly by use of secondary research, that will be done by the latest articles resource from
both internet and books, reports from GRDI, government data’s and through observation methods.
3.3 Research Approach and Data Collection Methods
To fulfill the specific objective of this research, quantitative analysis is used as the major research tool to process data.
This is complemented by qualitative analysis. All collected data in this study are defined in a manner suitable for
quantification. Most of the surveys were conducted in the large mega shopping malls in Chennai and Bangalore city to
get the consumer buying perception more appropriate. Questionaries’ are prepared in such a way that it is easy to
understand and taken extra care that no unethical questions have been included in the survey forms. Prior to the
commencement of the survey, a pilot study was also undertaken to examine the suitability and comprehensibility of these
questionnaires and expert suggestions are also taken in to consideration so that the survey is more realistic and gather
more appropriate data.