25-06-2014, 10:37 AM
INDIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH, Energy SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
INDIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH, Energy.ppt (Size: 566 KB / Downloads: 103)
The Past Ten Years And Now
GDP growth: From 1998-99-6.5, 6.1, 4.4, 5.8, 4.0, 8.5, 7.5, 9.5, 9.7*; 2008-09 7.1%? New year-5%?
Industrial production negative growth Dec 08, Jan 09.
High and Rising Savings rate
Rise in Capital formation Esp. Private Sector
Deepening Export
Inflation at single digit for a decade; 7.7% last year, 4.2 in Dec 2005; despite fuel, power, light & lubricants at 7.1; from 03-04-8.1, 03-04-9.8); Rising in 2007-08, Nov 2008- 7.8%; Now almost zero
Export growth trends; 01-02 onwards: 22.1, 15.0, 21.4, 27.6 & in 08-09 now drop of 20%
Rapid growth of I.T. and B.P.O.
Resilience: Survived face-off with USA and sanctions after nuclear explosions
India- A Fast Growing Economy with Greater Potential
Mobile Users - 362.2 million (Jan 2009); 101.1 Million new mobile users in last 10 months; growth continues
Internet connectivity in 2010 -200 million; still growing
5.25 mn broadband connections (Dec 2008); growing
5.4 million PC’s sold in 2006; slowing down
Cars: expected 30% growth p.a.; Will rise again with NANO
2010-over 94 mn cable & satellite households
Advertising industry at Rs4000 crores=$800 million
Slow down in Retailing; Special Economic Zones, Media
Agriculture 20% of GDP, poor productivity, declining public investment, too many poorly targeted subsidies;
Weak Infrastructure-Power, Roads, etc
Social infrastructure-Health, Education, etc
Poor Delivery systems
Demographic Dividend
2004-Population =1080 million of which
Age between 15 and 64=672 million
Below 15 and over 64, non-working or dependent population=408 million
Dependency ratio of 0.6; 2030-0.4
2020 Average Age: India-29; China-37; Japan-48: youngest working age population in world
Less children=more women at work; more saving; greater growth
HDI indicators
Improvement on all fronts; others have fared much better
HDI Rank out of 174; Sri Lanka 89; China 96; Indonesia 110; India 124; Pakistan 148
India: +60 population in millions-2001-6.3%=65; 2016-8.9%=113
-Age 15-59 2001-598mn; 2016-811mn
-Urbanization: 2001-27.8%; 2030-50%?
-Issues: Livelihoods, health, education, housing, water, roads, sanitation, social security, law and order
Poor public health and important reason for low HDI
Liquidity and Falling Rupee
Banking meltdown in USA worsened situation
FII’s, foreign banks withdrew to support liquidity in their HQ
Stock markets collapsed-SENSEX from 21000 to almost 8000
Rupee collapsed-in 11 months from Rs 38 to $ to Rs 50
Overseas borrowing marked to market-upset balance sheets of Indian companies and
P & L as interest costs shown in Rupees
Energy investment affected adversely
Energy efficiency
Ratio of Total Primary energy Consumption to GDP in PPP terms-2005:
India 0.15;China 0.22;USA 0.21; Russia 0.47
India has shown in 2001-06 least energy consumption growth to GDP growth: Av GDP +8% p.a. & 3.7% annual energy consumption growth
India’s population 3,5 times USA and 3 times EU20, but GDP growth is double with lower absolute incremental consumption of fossil fuels
China grew faster on incremental basis; but in absolute terms, since 2002, it consumed over 9 times fossil fuel compared to EU20, 10 times of USA, and 11 times India