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Introduction
The number of vehicles registered in India is shown
in Table 1. These data show that the total number of vehicles
increased from 37 million in 1997 to 73 million in
2004. This represents an annual average growth rate of
about 11% for cars and motorised two-wheelers and 7%
for trucks and buses. However, these numbers are probably
overestimates as personal vehicle owners register their
vehicles and pay the road tax once when they buy the vehicle
and are not required to pay an annual tax. Because
of this, a large number of vehicles remain on the official
record even when they are not in use any more. Recent
estimates suggest that the actual number of vehicles in
use may be about 60-70% of the official number1, 2.
Table 2 shows the sales of motor vehicles in India in 1997
and 2007. The sales figures also show an average annual
increase of 10-12% per year.
Table 3 shows the number of road traffic fatalities
and the population of India from 1997 to 20073. The total
number of fatalities increased at an average rate of about
4% per year in the period 1997-2003 and the rate has increased
to 8% per year since then. The number of fatalities
per million population remained around 79-83 in the
period 1997-2003 and has since increased to 101. Traffic
fatalities per unit population has been taken as an indicator of the health burden of road traffic crashes on society
at the city, regional, or national level. At the individual
level, what is of consequence is the risk of injury per trip,
and the total number of trips is proportionate to the population.
Therefore, traffic fatalities per unit population can
be taken as a rough indicator of risk faced by individuals.
The risk of being involved in a fatal road traffic crash has
obviously been increasing for Indian citizens over the
past few years. While some of this increase can be attributed
to increase in the number of motor vehicles per capita
in India, however, increasing vehicle ownership need
not result in increased fatality rates if adequate safety
measures are implemented4.
2. Crash patterns
Details of traffic crashes are not available at the national
level. While the official road traffic fatality data
may be close to the actual number, the injury data are gross
underestimates5. In this report only fatality data are used
for analysis as non-fatal data may suffer from many biases.
2.1 Road user category
Official road traffic crash data do not include fatalities
by road user category in India. Such data are only
available from a few cities and research studies done on
selected locations on rural highways. Table 4 shows traffic
fatalities by category of road users in Delhi (capital
city of India) and selected locations on national highways4,6.
These data show that car occupants were a small
proportion of the total fatalities, 3% in Delhi and 15% on
rural highways. Vulnerable road users (pedestrians, bicyclists,
and motorized two-wheeler riders) accounted for
84% of deaths in Delhi and 67% on highways. This pattern
is very different from that obtained in all high-income
countries. The low proportion of car occupants can be
explained by the low level of car ownership at 7 per 100
persons as compared to more than 50 per 100 persons in
most high income countries. At present levels of growth
in vehicle ownership in India, vulnerable road users are
likely to remain the dominant mode for the next few decades.
The incidence of road traffic fatalities can only be
controlled in the coming years if road safety policies put
a special focus on the safety of vulnerable road users.
Age and gender
Figure 1 shows the distribution of road traffic fatalities
in 2007 by age group and gender3. In 2007, only
15% of the victims were females. This is partly because
of the low representation of women in the Indian workforce
and exposure on roads. Children aged 14 years and
younger comprise only 6% of the fatalities, though their
share in the population is 32%. The proportion of fatalities
in the age groups 15-29 and greater than 60 years is similar to their representation in the population, but the
middle-age groups 30-44 and 45-59 are over represented
by about 70%. The low representation of children (2 fatalities
per 100,000 persons) is curious because a significant
number of children walk and bicycle to school unescorted,
both in urban and rural areas. Though the exposure
numbers for India are not available, children’s presence
on the road unsupervised is not insignificant. The reasons
for the low involvement rate of children needs to be investigated.
2.3 Time of day
Figure 2 gives the proportion of fatalities by time of
day in 35 large cities of India (population > 1 million)
and in the rest of the country including rural roads. In the
period 09:00 to 21:00 the proportions remain high and
similar both in the large cities and elsewhere. In the late
night hours (21:00-24:00) traffic volumes are much lower
than the peak day time rates1 but the fatality rates do not
reflect this. In the early morning hours (00:00-06:00) the
proportions are much lower in the large cities, but relatively
higher in the rest of the country. It is possible that
since the rest of the country includes national highways,
the commercial goods traffic on those highways may account
for this. In the absence of more detailed epidemiological
data we can only surmise that the high rates at
night could be due to higher speeds of vehicles when traffic
volumes are lower and/or higher frequency of driving
under the influence of alcohol. Evidence for increased
use of alcohol comes from a hospital study in Delhi where
29% of the riders of motorized two-wheelers admitted to
alcohol consumption before the crash7. In Bangalore, a
hospital-based study showed that alcohol was involved in
22% of nighttime crashes, and that 35% of randomly
checked drivers on the road at night were under the influence
of alcohol5.
2.4 Fatalities in cities with population greater than 1
million persons
Figure 3 shows the fatality rates for cities with populations
greater than 1 million persons for the years 2001
and 20073. Delhi had the highest number of fatalities in
2007 (1,789) with a rate of 140 per million population. The
lowest rate was in Kolkata (35) and the highest in Agra
(386), with an overall average of 122 fatalities per million
persons for all these cities. In this period of six years,
only eight of the 35 cities did not experience an increase
in fatality rates. The highest increase was 433% in Asansol.
Since a vast majority of the victims in these cities are
vulnerable road users, one possible cause could be increases
in vehicle speeds. The probability of pedestrian
death is estimated at less than 10% at impact speeds of 30
km/h and greater than 80% at 50 km/h, and the relationship
between increase in fatalities and increase in impact
velocities is governed by a power of four 8,9. Small increases
in urban speeds can increase death rates dramatically.
2.5 Fatalities on rural highways
Detailed data are not available at the national or
state level for crashes on national highways. A study collected
data on modal shares, vehicle speeds, and traffic
crashes on selected locations on national and state highways
around the country in the late 1990s6. Table 4 shows
the type of road users killed on highways. The study reported
that trucks were the striking party in 65% of fatal
crashes. Other studies report that majority of the crashes
involved buses, 25% of the victims were pedestrians,
rear-end crashes comprised 40% of total crashes and that
crashes were increasing at a rate of 3.9% per year10-13. A
study of road traffic crashes on a National Highway in the
southern state of Kerala reported that heavy vehicles had
a high involvement, and pedestrians and cyclists were
28% of the victims14. The most important finding of this study is that the fatality rate per volume is more than
three times higher on the four-lane section than on twolane
sections. The construction of four-lane divided highways
(without access control) does not seem to have reduced
fatality rates, and vulnerable road users still account
for a large proportion of fatalities. There is a clear case for
redesign of intercity roads with separation of slow and
fast modes. The need of road users on local short distance
trips will have to be accounted for. Solutions for many of
these issues are not readily available and research studies
are necessary for the evolution of new designs.
3. Summary
Road traffic fatalities have been increasing at about
8% annually for the last ten years and show no signs of
decreasing. Two modelling exercises have attempted to
predict the time period when we might expect fatality rates
to start to decline in a range of countries9,15. Cropper and
Kopits predicted that fatalities in India would reach a total
of about 198,000 before starting to decline in 2042 and
Koornstra predicted an earlier date of 2030 for the peak
traffic fatalities in India. If we assume that the present
growth rate of 8% per year declines in a linear manner to
0% by 2030, then we can expect about 260,000 fatalities
by 2030. Neither of these projected dates (2042 and 2030)
can be accepted as road safety goals for the country.
An earlier report co-authored by the present author
has a more detailed analysis of the road traffic situation in
India and possible countermeasures4. In summary, road
safety policies in India must focus on the following issues
to reduce the incidence of road traffic injuries: pedestrians
and other non-motorist in urban areas; pedestrians,
other non-motorists, and slow vehicles on highways;
motorcycles and small cars in urban areas; over-involvement
of trucks and buses; night-time driving; and wrongway
drivers on divided highways. There is an urgent need
to revamp police data collecting procedures so that necessary
information is available for scientific analysis. India
specific countermeasures will be possible through continuous
monitoring and research, which will require the
establishment of road safety research centers in academic
institutions and a National Road Safety Board that could
help move toward a safer future as outlined above.